Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.122843 0.144161 0.168894 0.199908 0.238033 0.283723 0.343161
2025-09-28 0.083754 0.105856 0.133938 0.172789 0.226022 0.297722 0.403900
2025-10-05 0.067632 0.091366 0.124132 0.173864 0.249612 0.364439 0.559489
2025-10-12 0.057051 0.081911 0.118978 0.180453 0.284417 0.462360 0.812723
2025-10-19 0.048128 0.072946 0.112614 0.184043 0.317589 0.575532 1.168254
2025-10-26 0.041182 0.065578 0.107159 0.188115 0.355085 0.719762 1.708466
2025-11-02 0.034515 0.057300 0.098324 0.183844 0.376531 0.848571 2.354777
2025-11-09 0.028645 0.049250 0.088122 0.174103 0.383699 0.954470 3.087516
2025-11-16 0.025047 0.044655 0.083495 0.175018 0.418207 1.164841 4.536629
2025-11-23 0.022051 0.040637 0.079146 0.175449 0.453535 1.416239 6.735094
2025-11-30 0.019826 0.037736 0.076525 0.179506 0.503503 1.779152 10.660725
2025-12-07 0.017840 0.034964 0.073583 0.181975 0.552110 2.208109 16.976197
2025-12-14 0.015698 0.031572 0.068691 0.178279 0.582173 2.627235 26.259965
2025-12-21 0.013027 0.026568 0.058859 0.156874 0.533853 2.583602 30.354968
2025-12-28 0.011880 0.024865 0.056984 0.159734 0.588808 3.277714 54.550427
2026-01-04 0.011063 0.023793 0.056526 0.167334 0.674156 4.418695 115.845514
2026-01-11 0.010229 0.022534 0.055287 0.172011 0.753189 5.798790 253.232319
2026-01-18 0.009497 0.021405 0.054174 0.176951 0.842481 7.689490 627.881301
2026-01-25 0.008632 0.019794 0.051292 0.173935 0.884684 9.294639 1389.843138
2026-02-01 0.007744 0.017987 0.047445 0.165555 0.886402 10.431978 2741.263676
2026-02-08 0.007195 0.017011 0.045988 0.167026 0.962292 13.409409 9692.723838
2026-02-15 0.006694 0.016089 0.044513 0.167936 1.038989 17.203827 48357.223480
2026-02-22 0.006309 0.015435 0.043784 0.172209 1.153992 23.430944 750205.760104